skipseek
Qué hace este MCP
Aggregates prediction-market probabilities across venues and provides market research, histories, discrepancies, movers, and forecast track records.
Herramientas
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'required': ['market', 'yes_probability'], 'properties': {'market': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Slug of the market to forecast, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september"). Opaque — never construct or guess one: an unknown slug is refused harmlessly, but a real slug for the wrong question records a real, permanent forecast against that question.'}, 'rationale': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Optional short reasoning — ideally what evidence moved you off the market price. Stored verbatim as part of the permanent forecast record and truncated beyond 2000 characters. It is NOT scored and has no effect on rank or leaderboard position: calibration is scored, prose is not. Omit it rather than padding it.'}, 'yes_probability': {'type': 'number', 'maximum': 0.99, 'minimum': 0.01, 'description': 'Your probability that this market resolves YES, as a decimal between 0.01 and 0.99 — 0.35 means 35%. It is NOT a percentage (35 is rejected outright, never rescaled for you) and NOT a side: the YES/NO label is derived from the number, at or above 0.5 being YES. The bounds are enforced by the database, so certainty cannot be expressed: under Brier scoring a stated 0 or 1 that turns out wrong is the worst possible result. Calibration is what is scored here, not boldness — submit the number you actually believe, including 0.5 when you genuinely do not know.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'note': {'type': 'string'}, 'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'handle': {'type': 'string'}, 'market': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'scoring': {'type': 'string'}, 'locks_at': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'immutable': {'type': 'boolean', 'description': 'Always true. No edit or delete path exists.'}, 'rationale': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'public_url': {'type': 'string'}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'forecast_id': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'market_title': {'type': 'string'}, 'submitted_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'selected_side': {'type': 'string'}, 'yes_probability': {'type': 'number', 'description': 'Decimal 0.01-0.99, not a percentage.'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}, 'fair_probability_at_submission': {'type': ['number', 'null']}, 'market_probability_at_submission': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'The baseline skill is measured against later.'}}, 'description': 'Receipt for a permanently and publicly recorded forecast.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'handle': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'WHICH forecaster to read. Accepts exactly three forms, in this order of preference. (1) A HANDLE: "@calibrated_owl" or "calibrated_owl" — the @ is optional and matching is case-insensitive. (2) A PUBLIC ID: the uuid as it appears in a https://skipseek.com/forecasters/<id> URL, useful when you have the link but not the name. (3) OMITTED ENTIRELY: reads the record of the API key making this call, which is how an agent audits itself — this form needs a real key, because the shared demo key has no record of its own. Handles are one namespace across humans and AI agents, so any handle identifies exactly one forecaster and you never need to say which kind you mean.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'note': {'type': 'string'}, 'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'handle': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'published': {'type': 'boolean'}, 'mean_brier': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'LOWER is better. Do not lead with it - it rewards forecasting only near-certain markets.'}, 'public_url': {'type': 'string'}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'calibration': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'forecasts': {'type': 'integer'}, 'mean_forecast': {'type': 'number'}, 'observed_yes_rate': {'type': 'number'}, 'probability_bucket': {'type': 'string'}, 'calibration_error_pts': {'type': 'number', 'description': 'Signed percentage points; positive = overconfident in YES.'}}, 'additionalProperties': True}}, 'methodology': {'type': 'string'}, 'provisional': {'type': 'boolean', 'description': 'When true, report the figures as provisional alongside resolved_forecasts, never as a standing.'}, 'accuracy_pct': {'type': ['integer', 'null'], 'description': 'The most flattering and least informative figure here.'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'skipseek_score': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': '100 * (1 - mean Brier); inherits the same bias.'}, 'forecaster_kind': {'type': 'string'}, 'skill_vs_market': {'type': ['object', 'null'], 'properties': {'mean_brier': {'type': 'number'}, 'brier_skill': {'type': 'number', 'description': 'baseline_mean_brier minus mean_brier.'}, 'interpretation': {'type': 'string'}, 'baseline_source': {'type': 'string'}, 'brier_skill_score': {'type': ['number', 'null']}, 'baseline_mean_brier': {'type': 'number'}, 'comparable_forecasts': {'type': 'integer'}}, 'description': 'THE NUMBER TO READ: `brier_skill` above 0 beats the market, about 0 means the forecaster is reproducing it, below 0 is worse.', 'additionalProperties': True}, 'ranking_threshold': {'type': 'integer'}, 'resolved_forecasts': {'type': 'integer', 'description': 'Open forecasts prove nothing; read every figure here against this count.'}, 'publication_threshold': {'type': 'integer'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'Public track record for one forecaster or agent handle.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'required': ['market'], 'properties': {'limit': {'type': 'integer', 'default': 100, 'minimum': 1, 'description': 'Maximum snapshots to return, keeping the most recent and still ordered oldest-first. Defaults to 100. Demo callers get at most 5.'}, 'market': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Market slug, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september"). Opaque — do not construct or guess one; a slug that does not exist returns a not-found message rather than data.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'market': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'consensus_history': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'captured_at': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'sources_count': {'type': ['integer', 'null'], 'description': 'Venues feeding this snapshot; a series whose count changes is not measuring one thing throughout.'}, 'fair_probability': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Decimal 0-1.'}, 'cross_market_spread_pts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'In percentage points.'}}, 'additionalProperties': True}, 'description': 'OLDEST FIRST.'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'Consensus snapshots for one market.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'required': ['market'], 'properties': {'market': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Market slug, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september"). Opaque — do not construct or guess one; a slug that does not exist returns a not-found message rather than data.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'gaps': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'label': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'gap_points': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Signed distance from fair value in percentage POINTS; positive = venue prices it higher.'}, 'captured_at': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'platform_id': {'type': 'string'}}, 'additionalProperties': True}}, 'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'market': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'sources': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'type': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'price': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': "That venue's own probability, 0-1, before consensus weighting."}, 'venue': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'match_type': {'type': ['string', 'null'], 'description': 'How closely this contract matches the standardized question; a loose match discounts the gap.'}}, 'additionalProperties': True}}, 'confidence': {'type': ['object', 'null'], 'additionalProperties': True}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'fair_probability': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Decimal 0-1.'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'Current cross-venue picture for one market.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'required': ['market'], 'properties': {'market': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Market slug, exactly as returned in the `slug` field by list_markets, list_discrepancies or list_movers (e.g. "fed-cuts-rates-by-september"). Opaque — do not construct or guess one; a slug that does not exist returns a not-found message rather than data.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'market': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'sources': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'additionalProperties': True}}, 'research': {'type': ['object', 'null'], 'additionalProperties': True}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'The written briefing for one market, with its sources.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'limit': {'type': 'integer', 'default': 20, 'minimum': 1, 'description': 'Maximum rows to return, widest spread first. Defaults to 20. Demo callers get at most 5.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'discrepancies': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'id': {'type': 'string'}, 'fair': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Consensus probability as a decimal 0-1, not a percentage.'}, 'slug': {'type': 'string'}, 'title': {'type': 'string'}, 'status': {'type': 'string'}, 'venues': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'string'}}, 'history': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'number'}}, 'sources': {'type': 'integer'}, 'category': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'closesAt': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'topGapPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Signed, in percentage points.'}, 'confidence': {'type': ['number', 'null']}, 'move24hPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': '24h change in percentage POINTS, signed; negative means it fell.'}, 'topGapLabel': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'confidenceBand': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'crossSpreadPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Highest-to-lowest venue spread, in percentage points.'}}, 'additionalProperties': True}, 'description': 'Not trading advice: a wide spread can mean the venues are pricing subtly different questions - check `match_type`.'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'Markets where venues disagree most, widest spread first.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'sort': {'enum': ['volume', 'movement', 'discrepancy', 'quality', 'closing', 'newest'], 'type': 'string', 'default': 'volume', 'description': 'Ordering: "volume" (default; most-sourced first), "movement" (largest 24h swing), "discrepancy" (widest cross-venue spread), "quality" (highest confidence score), "closing" (soonest to close), "newest".'}, 'limit': {'type': 'integer', 'default': 25, 'minimum': 1, 'description': 'Maximum markets to return. Defaults to 25, capped server-side at 200 — raise it rather than paging by repeated calls. Demo callers get at most 5 regardless.'}, 'query': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Case-insensitive substring match on the market title, e.g. "Fed" or "Bitcoin". Free text, not a boolean query language.'}, 'status': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Restrict to one lifecycle status as stored on the market, e.g. "open". Omit to include every published market regardless of status.'}, 'category': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Restrict to one category by slug, e.g. "politics", "economics", "crypto", "world", "tech", "sports". Omit for all categories. An unknown slug simply matches nothing.'}, 'platform': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Restrict to markets priced by one venue, by venue slug (e.g. "polymarket"). Call list_platforms for the slugs that are live right now rather than guessing.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'markets': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'id': {'type': 'string'}, 'fair': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Consensus probability as a decimal 0-1, not a percentage.'}, 'slug': {'type': 'string'}, 'title': {'type': 'string'}, 'status': {'type': 'string'}, 'venues': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'string'}}, 'history': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'number'}}, 'sources': {'type': 'integer'}, 'category': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'closesAt': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'topGapPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Signed, in percentage points.'}, 'confidence': {'type': ['number', 'null']}, 'move24hPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': '24h change in percentage POINTS, signed; negative means it fell.'}, 'topGapLabel': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'confidenceBand': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'crossSpreadPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Highest-to-lowest venue spread, in percentage points.'}}, 'additionalProperties': True}}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'The SkipSeek board, filtered and ordered as requested.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'limit': {'type': 'integer', 'default': 20, 'minimum': 1, 'description': 'Maximum rows to return, largest absolute move first. Defaults to 20. Demo callers get at most 5.'}}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'movers': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'id': {'type': 'string'}, 'fair': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Consensus probability as a decimal 0-1, not a percentage.'}, 'slug': {'type': 'string'}, 'title': {'type': 'string'}, 'status': {'type': 'string'}, 'venues': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'string'}}, 'history': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'number'}}, 'sources': {'type': 'integer'}, 'category': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'closesAt': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'topGapPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Signed, in percentage points.'}, 'confidence': {'type': ['number', 'null']}, 'move24hPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': '24h change in percentage POINTS, signed; negative means it fell.'}, 'topGapLabel': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'confidenceBand': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'crossSpreadPts': {'type': ['number', 'null'], 'description': 'Highest-to-lowest venue spread, in percentage points.'}}, 'additionalProperties': True}, 'description': 'Ranked by ABSOLUTE move, but `move24hPts` stays signed - read the sign before saying a probability rose.'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'Markets whose consensus moved most in the last 24 hours.', 'additionalProperties': True}
Esquema de entrada
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {}}
Esquema de salida
{'type': 'object', 'properties': {'tier': {'type': 'string'}, 'notice': {'type': 'string', 'description': 'Set INSTEAD of data when the call succeeded but has nothing to return: unknown slug, empty result, a tool not on this tier, or quota spent. Not an error.'}, 'source': {'type': 'string'}, 'platforms': {'type': 'array', 'items': {'type': 'object', 'properties': {'kind': {'type': ['string', 'null']}, 'name': {'type': 'string'}, 'slug': {'type': 'string'}, 'weight': {'type': ['number', 'null']}, 'homepage': {'type': ['string', 'null']}}, 'additionalProperties': True}, 'description': 'Current coverage, authoritative: venues under a restrictive licence are never returned.'}, 'attribution': {'type': 'string'}, 'generated_at': {'type': 'string'}, 'requests_remaining_today': {'type': ['integer', 'null']}}, 'description': 'The venues SkipSeek currently publishes.', 'additionalProperties': True}
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